July 2013 metals preview 2013

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July 2013 metals preview 2013

Post by Admin on Sun Sep 15, 2013 1:50 am

2013 2013 2013 <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-1YKzVy4EaD0/Uc8sZBbOVzI/AAAAAAAAC0U/-GfLtCcG73Q/s162/1tarsier-1.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-1YKzVy4EaD0/Uc8sZBbOVzI/AAAAAAAAC0U/-GfLtCcG73Q/s162/1tarsier-1.png"></a></div>Thus far, I've been refusing media requests to call a bottom. However, I did tell my subscribers yesterday (and lucky members of the general public, today) that I believe we've reached a bottom in gold on a monthly closing basis, based on Fibonacci levels.<br><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-GiTytGx1RMk/Uc8sYBxPm9I/AAAAAAAACzs/f3-xRp7iEak/s977/11115.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="177" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-GiTytGx1RMk/Uc8sYBxPm9I/AAAAAAAACzs/f3-xRp7iEak/s400/11115.png" width="400"></a></div><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-MpGu_qLWvEc/Uc8sX3_CAsI/AAAAAAAACz4/Eg4RhJKJr7k/s984/11116.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="88" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-MpGu_qLWvEc/Uc8sX3_CAsI/AAAAAAAACz4/Eg4RhJKJr7k/s200/11116.png" width="200"></a><br> However, I do expect the lows of this week to be re-tested in both metals at some point, if not this month (a bounce seems likely), then next. And frankly, at this point, I cannot in good conscience write this post, which will be read by millions of wide-eyed investors working hard <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ah6WUajOI8">to put food on their families</a>, without acknowledging the prospect that the bull market in gold may be over. It seems mind- boggling that this proposition could be true, in the face of such pervasive corruption and arrogant parasitism, such hubristic folly and dysgenic <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y0O7_3o3BrI">idiocratization</a>, but a continued move down to the $800's (and a year of $1000 as resistance) after a little dead cat bounce, in conjunction with new stock market highs and unemployment numbers down below 7%, wouldn't really surprise me.<br><br>There's been massive <i>very-</i>long-term chart damage on so many charts we've been looking at, e.g. stocks vs. gold, and this one:<br><br><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-WiHEcFHsle8/Uc8sZOwhZtI/AAAAAAAAC0M/ubIhOdTeoJg/s1561/1123.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="139" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-WiHEcFHsle8/Uc8sZOwhZtI/AAAAAAAAC0M/ubIhOdTeoJg/s320/1123.png" width="320"></a></div><br><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br></div>Somewhat ironically, it's the <i>charts</i> which are tempering my gold-bullishness--not arguments based on economics. I generally try to read as many anti-gold pieces as pro-gold, but I find them unconvincing. <a href="http://markdow.tumblr.com/post/54017190420/gold-thinking-about-how-far-we-fall" target="_blank">Here </a>was a pretty good one (picked up from <a href="http://stocktwits.com/KidDynamiteBlog">Kid Dynamite</a>'s stock twits), with the major premise that people are starting to &quot;understand how monetary policy works&quot; and thus no longer fear inflation. But always with these guys, ample straw-man kicking going on. Can someone <i>contra </i>gold please stop pretending that to buy gold = to fear incipient hyperinflation ? <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ytJ_w43zIA0">Gold is not so much a hedge against inflation as it is a hedge against monetary disorder</a> and corruption, and (for the small players who have power in aggregate) a vote against the thieves masquerading as public servants. The anti-gold commentators often have cognitive biases that seem as obvious to me as those of the perma-bulls they mock: they take official announcements and releases at face value while refusing to question the legitimacy of the enormous zero-sum transfer of wealth (and power) to the financial class (i.e. the gambling elite) in recent years. They are blind to this perhaps because they benefit from it, perhaps because they have been swimming in its axioms like fish that don't realize they're wet.<br><br>Here's one of many academic <a href="http://icc.oxfordjournals.org/content/17/6/1097" target="_blank">articles</a> offering a big-picture perspective to what's going on:<br><br><h1 id="article-title-1" itemprop="headline" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-style: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 10px; outline-style: none; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-align: center; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-weight: normal;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">Financialization of the global economy</span></span></h1><div style="text-align: center;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Lucida Grande', 'Lucida Sans Unicode', Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px;">The instability of the world financial system, starkly revealed in the recent debacle, is not the only problem it poses. Its secularly increasing dominance over the real economy is in itself a phenomenon that needs examining. The article traces the source of this increasing dominance not just to the increasingly leveraged and increasingly incomprehensible forms of intermediation between savers and those in the real economy who need credit and insurance, but also to the increasingly universal doctrine that maximizing “shareholder value” is the sole raison d’être of the firm and the promotion by governments of an “equity culture.” <b style="font-style: italic;">Some of the social consequences of financialization are exacerbating inequalities, greater insecurity, misdirection of talent, and the erosion of trust </b>[emphasis added]</span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Lucida Grande', 'Lucida Sans Unicode', Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px;"></span></div><a href="http://screwtapefiles.blogspot.com/2013/06/july-2013-metals-preview.html#more">Read more »</a><div class="blogger-post-footer"><p></p></div><br> 2013 2013 2013 <br><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-1YKzVy4EaD0/Uc8sZBbOVzI/AAAAAAAAC0U/-GfLtCcG73Q/s162/1tarsier-1.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-1YKzVy4EaD0/Uc8sZBbOVzI/AAAAAAAAC0U/-GfLtCcG73Q/s162/1tarsier-1.png"></a></div>Thus far, I've been refusing media requests to call a bottom. However, I did tell my subscribers yesterday (and lucky members of the general public, today) that I believe we've reached a bottom in gold on a monthly closing basis, based on Fibonacci levels.<br><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-GiTytGx1RMk/Uc8sYBxPm9I/AAAAAAAACzs/f3-xRp7iEak/s977/11115.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="177" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-GiTytGx1RMk/Uc8sYBxPm9I/AAAAAAAACzs/f3-xRp7iEak/s400/11115.png" width="400"></a></div><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-MpGu_qLWvEc/Uc8sX3_CAsI/AAAAAAAACz4/Eg4RhJKJr7k/s984/11116.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="88" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-MpGu_qLWvEc/Uc8sX3_CAsI/AAAAAAAACz4/Eg4RhJKJr7k/s200/11116.png" width="200"></a><br> However, I do expect the lows of this week to be re-tested in both metals at some point, if not this month (a bounce seems likely), then next. And frankly, at this point, I cannot in good conscience write this post, which will be read by millions of wide-eyed investors working hard <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ah6WUajOI8">to put food on their families</a>, without acknowledging the prospect that the bull market in gold may be over. It seems mind- boggling that this proposition could be true, in the face of such pervasive corruption and arrogant parasitism, such hubristic folly and dysgenic <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y0O7_3o3BrI">idiocratization</a>, but a continued move down to the $800's (and a year of $1000 as resistance) after a little dead cat bounce, in conjunction with new stock market highs and unemployment numbers down below 7%, wouldn't really surprise me.<br><br>There's been massive <i>very-</i>long-term chart damage on so many charts we've been looking at, e.g. stocks vs. gold, and this one:<br><br><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-WiHEcFHsle8/Uc8sZOwhZtI/AAAAAAAAC0M/ubIhOdTeoJg/s1561/1123.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="139" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-WiHEcFHsle8/Uc8sZOwhZtI/AAAAAAAAC0M/ubIhOdTeoJg/s320/1123.png" width="320"></a></div><br><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br></div>Somewhat ironically, it's the <i>charts</i> which are tempering my gold-bullishness--not arguments based on economics. I generally try to read as many anti-gold pieces as pro-gold, but I find them unconvincing. <a href="http://markdow.tumblr.com/post/54017190420/gold-thinking-about-how-far-we-fall" target="_blank">Here </a>was a pretty good one (picked up from <a href="http://stocktwits.com/KidDynamiteBlog">Kid Dynamite</a>'s stock twits), with the major premise that people are starting to &quot;understand how monetary policy works&quot; and thus no longer fear inflation. But always with these guys, ample straw-man kicking going on. Can someone <i>contra </i>gold please stop pretending that to buy gold = to fear incipient hyperinflation ? <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ytJ_w43zIA0">Gold is not so much a hedge against inflation as it is a hedge against monetary disorder</a> and corruption, and (for the small players who have power in aggregate) a vote against the thieves masquerading as public servants. The anti-gold commentators often have cognitive biases that seem as obvious to me as those of the perma-bulls they mock: they take official announcements and releases at face value while refusing to question the legitimacy of the enormous zero-sum transfer of wealth (and power) to the financial class (i.e. the gambling elite) in recent years. They are blind to this perhaps because they benefit from it, perhaps because they have been swimming in its axioms like fish that don't realize they're wet.<br><br>Here's one of many academic <a href="http://icc.oxfordjournals.org/content/17/6/1097" target="_blank">articles</a> offering a big-picture perspective to what's going on:<br><br><h1 id="article-title-1" itemprop="headline" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-style: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 10px; outline-style: none; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-align: center; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-weight: normal;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">Financialization of the global economy</span></span></h1><div style="text-align: center;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Lucida Grande', 'Lucida Sans Unicode', Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px;">The instability of the world financial system, starkly revealed in the recent debacle, is not the only problem it poses. Its secularly increasing dominance over the real economy is in itself a phenomenon that needs examining. The article traces the source of this increasing dominance not just to the increasingly leveraged and increasingly incomprehensible forms of intermediation between savers and those in the real economy who need credit and insurance, but also to the increasingly universal doctrine that maximizing “shareholder value” is the sole raison d’être of the firm and the promotion by governments of an “equity culture.” <b style="font-style: italic;">Some of the social consequences of financialization are exacerbating inequalities, greater insecurity, misdirection of talent, and the erosion of trust </b>[emphasis added]</span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Lucida Grande', 'Lucida Sans Unicode', Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px;"></span></div><a href="http://screwtapefiles.blogspot.com/2013/06/july-2013-metals-preview.html#more">Read more »</a><div class="blogger-post-footer"><p></p></div><br>2013 2013 2013 <br> <a href="http://www.matrixar.com/" title="Matrix ">المصفوفة : أجمل الخلفيات والصور</a>

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