Likely: latest Atlantic hurricane-free date at least since 1941 2013

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Likely: latest Atlantic hurricane-free date at least since 1941 2013

Post by Admin on Sun Sep 15, 2013 8:33 am

2013 2013 2013 <em>Originally posted on September 4th. Now, 5 days later, it seems that one of the <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/">currently active systems</a> will grow to the Hurricane Humberto (Eastern Atlantic, near Africa) so the records won't be broken – the 1941 late date wasn't beaten (the difference was just a day or so) but it's the latest first-hurricane birth date since 2002.</em><br /><blockquote><b>Remotely related:</b> Henrik Svensmark et al. have a <a href="https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/51188502/PLA22068.pdf">new paper</a> (<a href="http://www.dtu.dk/english/News/Nyhed?id={ABB2F1B4-F5F7-4452-BB39-9818EA7CB8F9}">press release</a>) on cosmoclimatology in PLA, experimentally arguing that the UV rays increase the aerosol production from ozone, sulfur dioxide, vapor by the same factor even for nuclei above 50 nm of diameter – which may already be called cloud condensation nuclei. This strengthens his claims that the cosmic rays influence the climate and falsifies some theories about the chemistry of the atmosphere. Via <a href="http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/09/04/svensmarks-cosmic-ray-theory-of-clouds-and-global-warming-looks-to-be-confirmed/">WUWT</a>. See <a href="http://motls.blogspot.com/2012/03/yet-another-trick-of-cosmicrays.html?m=1">previous TRF text</a> on cosmoclimatology.<br /></blockquote><span class="isolimg"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Hurricane_Katrina_Eye_viewed_from_Hurricane_Hunter.jpg" rel="nofollow"><img src="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/dd/Hurricane_Katrina_Eye_viewed_from_Hurricane_Hunter.jpg/150px-Hurricane_Katrina_Eye_viewed_from_Hurricane_Hunter.jpg" width=144 align="left"></a></span>I have manually checked the dates of formation of the first hurricanes on Wikipedia pages about the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1851_Atlantic_hurricane_season">1851 Atlantic hurricane season</a> (older, sparser data, are available at most on the "one page per decade" basis) through the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_Atlantic_hurricane_season">2013 Atlantic hurricane season</a>. You should be able to manually edit the year in the URL to get to all the other pages.<br /><br />This is what I found.<br /><br />The first 2013 Atlantic hurricane hasn't started to form yet; <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/" rel="nofollow">only two 20-30 percent "glimpses"</a> of a possible depression can be seen and they're likely to be destroyed by their collision with the land (and if they won't be, they will still be too weak for a hurricane). It's September 4th. The probability is therefore high that this situation will continue past September 9th, i.e. next Monday. If that's so, 2013 will beat 2002 (Sep 9th) and the "most recent" hurricane season that could beat our present are 1941 (Sep 17th), 1922 (Sep 13th), 1914 and 1907 (the only two recorded hurricane-free seasons with 1 and 5 named storms, respectively), 1905 (Oct 1st), 1877 (Sep 14th), and 1876 (Sep 12th).<a name='more'></a><br /><br /><script type="text/javascript"><!-- google_ad_client = "ca-pub-8768832575723394"; /* 336x280, created 8/17/10 */ google_ad_slot = "0363397257"; google_ad_width = 336; google_ad_height = 280; //--></script><br /><script src="http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js" type="text/javascript"></script><br /><br />For the sake of convenience, let me mention the first "hurricane birth date" for less spectacular years which were nevertheless late in the season: 1937 (Sep 9th), 1931 (Sep 6th), 1920 (Sep 7th), 1912 (Sep 10th), 1865, 1857 (both Sep 6th). Some seasons were very weak – 1952, 1939, 1930 – but some hurricanes materialized by the end of August, anyway.<br /><br />Most of the years see the first hurricane forming sometime in July. August births of the first hurricanes are rarer, much like the beginning in September or, on the contrary, June (or even May). Several out-of-the-official-season hurricanes in January etc. mess up with the calendar and I was overlooking them (treating them as if they didn't occur). <br /><br /><script type="text/javascript"><!-- google_ad_client = "ca-pub-8768832575723394"; /* 336x280, created 8/17/10 */ google_ad_slot = "0363397257"; google_ad_width = 336; google_ad_height = 280; //--></script><br /><script src="http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js" type="text/javascript"></script><br /><br />See also an <a href="http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2013-in-running-for-latest-atl/17382707">Accuweather</a> and <a href="http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/08/30/a-head-scratcher-no-atlantic-hurricane-by-august-in-first-time-in-11-years/">WUWT</a> articles about the possibly looming new record.<br /><br /><iframe align="left" frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=lubosmotlsref-20&amp;o=1&amp;p=8&amp;l=bpl&amp;asins=B00DVFLJDS&amp;fc1=FFFFFF&amp;IS2=1&amp;lt1=_blank&amp;m=amazon&amp;lc1=CCFF99&amp;bc1=003322&amp;bg1=113322&amp;f=ifr" style="align: left; height: 245px; padding-right: 10px; padding-top: 5px; width: 131px;"></iframe>After the unusually vigorous 2005 Atlantic hurricane season, we were drowning in predictions of ever stronger and ever more frequent hurricanes. A statistical evaluation of the 2006-2013 seasons shows that all the hurricane-related data randomly fluctuate in the usual intervals we have been used to for quite some time. These numbers are very volatile but there's no indication that something is increasing and everything suggests that 2005 was an exceptional year that is unlikely to be repeated often.<br /><br />So far, we don't know for sure whether the late earliest 2002 hurricane date will be beaten – I would bet that it probably will – and whether 2013 will join the shortlist of hurricaneless seasons (1914 and 1907: how many TRF readers remember those years?) – chances for Yes and No seem comparable to me. And yes, I think it's more likely than not that at least one hurricane was overlooked either in 1907 or 1914, due to the absence of satellites and similar devices, so it's perfectly plausible that the ongoing season will actually be the weakest one since 1851 (unless a hurricane will materialize).<br /><br />But what is clear is that the absence of any unusually strong hurricane activity after 2005 is just another example of the spectacular failures of the climate alarmists. Like with other failures, they never learn any lesson. They only cherry-pick the data that agree with their scientifically pathological opinion that a dangerous climate change should be underway and simply switch to something else whenever the clash of their idea with the data becomes too self-evident.<br /><br />Whenever it becomes indisputable that the data have falsified a particular prediction of their "dangerous climate change" framework – and be almost sure that the data ultimately rule out every single one of them – they just switch to something else in which the data aren't sufficiently detailed which is why sufficiently spun, cherry-picked anecdotes may be temporarily used to replace the data. This approach is unscientific and despicable.<br /><br />It's not too important scientifically or socially whether the first 2013 Atlantic hurricane starts to form before September 9th but I will be personally checking what's going on above the Atlantic Ocean, just for the fun of it. Will you?<br> 2013 2013 2013 <br><em>Originally posted on September 4th. Now, 5 days later, it seems that one of the <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/">currently active systems</a> will grow to the Hurricane Humberto (Eastern Atlantic, near Africa) so the records won't be broken – the 1941 late date wasn't beaten (the difference was just a day or so) but it's the latest first-hurricane birth date since 2002.</em><br /><blockquote><b>Remotely related:</b> Henrik Svensmark et al. have a <a href="https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/51188502/PLA22068.pdf">new paper</a> (<a href="http://www.dtu.dk/english/News/Nyhed?id={ABB2F1B4-F5F7-4452-BB39-9818EA7CB8F9}">press release</a>) on cosmoclimatology in PLA, experimentally arguing that the UV rays increase the aerosol production from ozone, sulfur dioxide, vapor by the same factor even for nuclei above 50 nm of diameter – which may already be called cloud condensation nuclei. This strengthens his claims that the cosmic rays influence the climate and falsifies some theories about the chemistry of the atmosphere. Via <a href="http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/09/04/svensmarks-cosmic-ray-theory-of-clouds-and-global-warming-looks-to-be-confirmed/">WUWT</a>. See <a href="http://motls.blogspot.com/2012/03/yet-another-trick-of-cosmicrays.html?m=1">previous TRF text</a> on cosmoclimatology.<br /></blockquote><span class="isolimg"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Hurricane_Katrina_Eye_viewed_from_Hurricane_Hunter.jpg" rel="nofollow"><img src="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/dd/Hurricane_Katrina_Eye_viewed_from_Hurricane_Hunter.jpg/150px-Hurricane_Katrina_Eye_viewed_from_Hurricane_Hunter.jpg" width=144 align="left"></a></span>I have manually checked the dates of formation of the first hurricanes on Wikipedia pages about the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1851_Atlantic_hurricane_season">1851 Atlantic hurricane season</a> (older, sparser data, are available at most on the "one page per decade" basis) through the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_Atlantic_hurricane_season">2013 Atlantic hurricane season</a>. You should be able to manually edit the year in the URL to get to all the other pages.<br /><br />This is what I found.<br /><br />The first 2013 Atlantic hurricane hasn't started to form yet; <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/" rel="nofollow">only two 20-30 percent "glimpses"</a> of a possible depression can be seen and they're likely to be destroyed by their collision with the land (and if they won't be, they will still be too weak for a hurricane). It's September 4th. The probability is therefore high that this situation will continue past September 9th, i.e. next Monday. If that's so, 2013 will beat 2002 (Sep 9th) and the "most recent" hurricane season that could beat our present are 1941 (Sep 17th), 1922 (Sep 13th), 1914 and 1907 (the only two recorded hurricane-free seasons with 1 and 5 named storms, respectively), 1905 (Oct 1st), 1877 (Sep 14th), and 1876 (Sep 12th).<a name='more'></a><br /><br /><script type="text/javascript"><!-- google_ad_client = "ca-pub-8768832575723394"; /* 336x280, created 8/17/10 */ google_ad_slot = "0363397257"; google_ad_width = 336; google_ad_height = 280; //--></script><br /><script src="http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js" type="text/javascript"></script><br /><br />For the sake of convenience, let me mention the first "hurricane birth date" for less spectacular years which were nevertheless late in the season: 1937 (Sep 9th), 1931 (Sep 6th), 1920 (Sep 7th), 1912 (Sep 10th), 1865, 1857 (both Sep 6th). Some seasons were very weak – 1952, 1939, 1930 – but some hurricanes materialized by the end of August, anyway.<br /><br />Most of the years see the first hurricane forming sometime in July. August births of the first hurricanes are rarer, much like the beginning in September or, on the contrary, June (or even May). Several out-of-the-official-season hurricanes in January etc. mess up with the calendar and I was overlooking them (treating them as if they didn't occur). <br /><br /><script type="text/javascript"><!-- google_ad_client = "ca-pub-8768832575723394"; /* 336x280, created 8/17/10 */ google_ad_slot = "0363397257"; google_ad_width = 336; google_ad_height = 280; //--></script><br /><script src="http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js" type="text/javascript"></script><br /><br />See also an <a href="http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2013-in-running-for-latest-atl/17382707">Accuweather</a> and <a href="http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/08/30/a-head-scratcher-no-atlantic-hurricane-by-august-in-first-time-in-11-years/">WUWT</a> articles about the possibly looming new record.<br /><br /><iframe align="left" frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=lubosmotlsref-20&amp;o=1&amp;p=8&amp;l=bpl&amp;asins=B00DVFLJDS&amp;fc1=FFFFFF&amp;IS2=1&amp;lt1=_blank&amp;m=amazon&amp;lc1=CCFF99&amp;bc1=003322&amp;bg1=113322&amp;f=ifr" style="align: left; height: 245px; padding-right: 10px; padding-top: 5px; width: 131px;"></iframe>After the unusually vigorous 2005 Atlantic hurricane season, we were drowning in predictions of ever stronger and ever more frequent hurricanes. A statistical evaluation of the 2006-2013 seasons shows that all the hurricane-related data randomly fluctuate in the usual intervals we have been used to for quite some time. These numbers are very volatile but there's no indication that something is increasing and everything suggests that 2005 was an exceptional year that is unlikely to be repeated often.<br /><br />So far, we don't know for sure whether the late earliest 2002 hurricane date will be beaten – I would bet that it probably will – and whether 2013 will join the shortlist of hurricaneless seasons (1914 and 1907: how many TRF readers remember those years?) – chances for Yes and No seem comparable to me. And yes, I think it's more likely than not that at least one hurricane was overlooked either in 1907 or 1914, due to the absence of satellites and similar devices, so it's perfectly plausible that the ongoing season will actually be the weakest one since 1851 (unless a hurricane will materialize).<br /><br />But what is clear is that the absence of any unusually strong hurricane activity after 2005 is just another example of the spectacular failures of the climate alarmists. Like with other failures, they never learn any lesson. They only cherry-pick the data that agree with their scientifically pathological opinion that a dangerous climate change should be underway and simply switch to something else whenever the clash of their idea with the data becomes too self-evident.<br /><br />Whenever it becomes indisputable that the data have falsified a particular prediction of their "dangerous climate change" framework – and be almost sure that the data ultimately rule out every single one of them – they just switch to something else in which the data aren't sufficiently detailed which is why sufficiently spun, cherry-picked anecdotes may be temporarily used to replace the data. This approach is unscientific and despicable.<br /><br />It's not too important scientifically or socially whether the first 2013 Atlantic hurricane starts to form before September 9th but I will be personally checking what's going on above the Atlantic Ocean, just for the fun of it. Will you?<br>2013 2013 2013 <br> <a href="http://www.matrixar.com/" title="Matrix ">المصفوفة : أجمل الخلفيات والصور</a>

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